Oscar Nominations: Predictions, Preferences and Snubs

With today's announcement of the 83rd Oscar nominations, a month long period of speculation, campaigning, and anticipation was kicked off. In other words, it's a great time to be a movie buff!

As with every Oscar season, every category has it's favorites and dark horses, and a few disappointed contenders who didn't quite garner a nod. We will look into the high profile categories here. I'll give you my prediction as well as who I want to win.

(please remember: just because I think something will win doesn't mean I liked it better. You have to realize The Oscars are 90% politics. Ok, I was exaggerating. Its more like 98%)

*PICKS
*FAVORITES


Animated feature film:

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Academy voters obviously appreciate animated films that appeal to adults as well as kids. No contest here, only one of these film's is also nominated for BP... Toy Story 3! Count on Pixar coming away with a fourth straight Oscar in this category, and the 6th in the last 8 years. Impressive.

By the way, in case you missed it, here is a look at the great TS3 For-Your-Consideration ad campaign. Looking back at some of Oscar's most prolific Best Picture upset winners is an interesting tactic, it got them a nod but Toy Story 3 is a long shot to get a statue for Best Picture.


Actor:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

I don't really have much of a bias in this one, I like all these guys and they are all fine actors who deserve an Oscar. I see it as Firth vs. Bridges yet again. Bridges took round one last year with his win for A Mighty Heart, while Firth lost out despite being great in A Single Man. Look for his fortunes to reverse this time around, as his performance as the stuttering monarch is getting all the buzz lately.

Jesse Eisenberg's turn as Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg got a lot of attention when The Social Network came out a few months ago. He manages to portray the social ineptness and ruthless drive of the tycoon while still maintaining a layer of innocence. He is my dark horse here. (Keep in mind, out of the four acting awards given out each year, one winner is usually a surprise).

Actress:

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

There's really only one sure thing in this year's batch of nods, and it is Portman for Best Actress. She has all the buzz in the world over her performance, was in a movie people actually saw and endured a year of ballet training in preparation for the role. That's the kind of dedication Oscar loves.


Director:

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit

I expect Fincher to win, despite the fact that The Social Network is pretty over rated. To those who went so far as to call it a modern day Citizen Kane, please, stop. It is good but not THAT good. He did manage to get some top shelf performances from young actors, and a decent one from Justin Timberlake (shudder) but that alone does not an Oscar win. The film's pacing and score didn't do it for me.

You will notice that I didn't include my personal favorite above... that's because my favorite nominee didn't technically get nominated. Christopher Nolan, director of the visionary sci-fi actioner Inception, was blatantly snubbed by the academy, and I'm not the only one who thinks so. Maybe he will get a sympathy Original Screenplay Oscar out of it at least.




Best Picture:


Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Although it was upset by The King's Speech at the Golden Globes, David Fincher's biopic of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg still holds a lead on the competition, albeit a narrower one than many thought. However don't count King's Speech out, it has been getting plenty of buzz the last few weeks, and as any Hollywood insider like myself knows, buzz is everything.

My favorite films of the year, Inception and Toy Story 3, will likely be shut out. The latter due to its being "just an animated film" (pfft) and the former because the academy apparently doesn't like Christopher Nolan.

As for the category as a whole, I can't think of any snubs in this race. All the nominated films are worthy of a win. Haven't seen The Fighter but it is a contender with several acting nominations under its belt. True Grit has plenty of nominations, but the Coens' have had their time in the sun lately and the Academy likes to honor fresh faces. Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, and The Kids are Alright are all long shots with less buzz than the aforementioned films.

That leaves Black Swan as my dark horse to possibly "jeté" in and swipe the Oscar from front runners The King's Speech and The Social Network.

Would like to hear some of your thoughts!

The Academy Awards are on February 27th.

Hello!

This is the first post. Hopefully, the first of many, many posts. But that depends on YOU.

This first week, I would like to see if I can get enough followers (maybe a dozen?) to have it make sense to post some sort of poll. I am planning on instituting a weekly "What New Release Should Greg See on its Opening Day" poll. That poll would run weekly every week.

Following the poll, I will go see whichever film gets the most votes on the day it comes out, rain or shine, long lines be damned, no questions asked, and post a blog afterward with my impressions of the film, the crazy fan-boys in costume, whatever it may be. So, if you want to get my thoughts on a movie you want to see but might be skeptical about, vote for it. If you prefer to torture me by sending me to the matinee of the newest Pokemon movie alongside 300 daycare kids, vote for it. Its all fair game.

Another weekly feature I am considering is the "Top Five ___". In this feature, I would pick an aspect of film, from the painfully obvious to the insanely obscure, (depending on how much time I want to spend thinking about it that given week), and choose my own "Top five" of ____ throughout film history. Reader comments of these posts would be greatly appreciated, if you have your own top 5 ___ especially! I will also consider posting a poll concerning these posts if my choices prove to be controversial (HA).

A third feature I have planned, which was ultimately my reason for founding this blog, is to write about movies that have been suggested to me by my close family and friends. At my graduation party, I asked all of my guests to answer a survey about their favorite movies. I made a solemn vow, and reiterate it now, to watch EVERY SINGLE ONE of their choices over the course of this summer. I don't know what I was smoking when I came up with that idea. Anyway, the responses ranged from the typical (The Godfather II) to the unfortunate (something called Super Dave). But nevertheless, I shall persevere. The authors of the surveys in question are presumably going to make up the bulk of this blog's readership for some time, so I will try to make it a twice weekly feature, but who knows how long that will last.

So, let this inaugural post serve as this blog's manifesto. I am going to keep it up at least for the summer, see where that takes us and how you like it.

Signing off-